The press promotes this logical fallacyIn a fit of mass hysteria, writers and pundits across the political spectrum announced last week that George Bush had single-handedly changed the face of the Middle East.
The region was moving toward democracy, they declared, as a direct result of Bush’s aggressive (and invasive) policies in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The press has largely bought into the linear-thinking that there is a clear cause-and-effect going on: Bush invades a country (never mind the “preemptive war” was based on trumped up charges of weapons of mass destruction). Then, after a couple years and tens of thousands of citizens dead, an election is held (never mind they seem to have voted against the candidate hand-picked by Washington). Fingers are stained purple. Next thing you know, other movements toward freer and more open societies in the region seem to be emerging.
Cause-and-effect: Bush, bombing leads to democracies, emerging.
The problem with this logical fallacy is that other factors within those other countries are ignored, as are the failures of Bush’s policies in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Furthermore, there is the problem of what to do when the desired effect doesn’t seem to be occurring, or when the trend reverses course. More bombing? Another invasion?
Caught up in the irrational exuberance, the press has forgotten to ask: “What’s next?” They have written the history of Bush’s role in the Middle East in the course of one week.
The pro-Syrian prime minister of Lebanon resigns in the face of 75,000 citizens protesting and Bush is declared a genius. By the time the stories in the weekly news magazines are on the newsstands, 500, 000 other Lebanese citizens have taken to the streets in support of the pro-Syrian government and the prime minister is reinstated. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m rooting for the 75,000 (and in this case, the apparent underdog). But just as quickly as Bush can look like a foreign policy wizard he can look completely irrelevant.
In another stupefying line of reasoning, the usually thoughtful Fareed Zakaria argues in Newsweek that it is Bush’s ignorance of the Middle East that makes him so successful there. If he really understood the complexities of the Middle East “he might have been disheartened,” Zakaria writes. “Freed from looking at the day-to-day realities, Bush [has] maintained a vision of what the region could look like.”
Using this logic, we should replace the rocket scientists as NASA with the comic book writers of the 40’s and 50’s. We’d be traveling to Pluto by now.
Optimism is to be commended, but utter ignorance is horrifyingly dangerous in the hands of the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military machine on the planet.